Introduction
Over the past eight and a half years, Somalia has experienced significant geopolitical turbulence, both on the international stage and within its own fractured federal framework. The transition from President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmaajo” to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has been marked by increased disintegration of federal states from the central government. Additionally, Mogadishu has entered numerous one-sided bilateral and multilateral agreements, often dictated by external powers prioritizing their own strategic interests.
Turkey’s Expanding Influence
Turkey has established a military base in Mogadishu and trains Somali forces, but its involvement has increasingly been seen as self-serving. The Ankara Declaration brokered by President Erdoğan after a 12-month diplomatic row with Ethiopia highlights a reactive rather than strategic approach to diplomacy. Furthermore, Turkey’s alliance with the Union for Peace and Development (UPD), a political party led by Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, signals clear interference in Somali democracy.
The UAE’s Strategic Maneuvering
The UAE has aggressively pursued influence through investments in Somalia’s ports, particularly in Berbera and Bosaso. These agreements often serve Abu Dhabi’s regional power struggles rather than Somalia’s long-term economic interests.
Ethiopia’s Expansionist Agenda
Ethiopia has long been accused of attempting to exert control over Somali affairs, and its recent agreement with Somaliland to access a port has escalated regional tensions. The deal, brokered without Mogadishu’s consent, highlights the ease with which neighboring states exploit Somalia’s internal weaknesses for their geopolitical advantage.
China: A Strategic Partner for Somalia?
China has increasingly expanded its presence in Africa through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), investing in infrastructure, energy, and technology. Somalia has largely remained absent from this initiative, despite clear opportunities for mutually beneficial collaboration. Key areas where China could support Somalia include trade diversification, infrastructure development, technology advancement, and military cooperation.
Countering the US-Aligned Monopoly
Avoiding China in favor of a US-aligned orbit places Somalia in a vulnerable position where it remains susceptible to diplomatic coercion. The US has historically pursued policies that prioritize stability over sovereignty in Somalia, supporting governments that align with its counterterrorism objectives rather than those that pursue genuine national interests.
Conclusion: A Pragmatic, Sovereign Approach
Somalia stands at a crossroads, and its next diplomatic moves will determine whether it remains a pawn in global power struggles or emerges as a sovereign actor. Embracing multipolarity is not just a diplomatic necessity—it is an imperative for national survival and long-term stability.
References
1. Erdoğan’s role in brokering the Ankara Declaration – https://example.com/erdogan-ankara-declaration
2. Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal controversy – https://example.com/ethiopia-somali-port-deal
3. UAE and DP World’s Somali investments – https://example.com/uae-dpworld-somalia
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